Showing posts with label choice. Show all posts
Showing posts with label choice. Show all posts

8.21.2020

Universals of Choice

 

This article was published in Etc: A Review of General Semantics, 75 (January and April 2018), pp. 76-83.

Universals of Choice

Joseph A. DeVito*

Universals are qualities or characteristics of a process or concept that are present in all instances. For example, if we consider the universals of language, we’d find that all languages have nouns and pronouns, all languages have a deep and surface structure, and all languages have vowels and consonants (Greenberg, 1963). A universal of choice, the subject of this paper, then, is a characteristic that is present in all choice-making acts.

     Along with many of the social sciences, communication is (and has been for at least the last 30 years) focused on identifying differences (mainly cultural and gender differences) and explaining how these differences influence communication and therefore why these differences need to be identified and incorporated into any theory of effective communication. In contrast, the search-for-universals approach focuses on identifying characteristics that any type of communication act has in common with all other instances of this type of communication.

Here we focus on choice making but it could be listening, nonverbal communication, small talk, public speaking, or any topic or subtopic of any field.  The topic can be broad (for example, interpersonal communication or General Semantics) or narrower (for example, making an apology or abstracting). The area to be explored and the specific purposes of the endeavor would determine the breadth of the specific topic chosen.

Choice making is important to study simply because it’s an inevitable part of life. You cannot live without making choices (Iyengar, 2011; DeVito, 2016b). Even when you refuse to make a choice, you’re act of refusal is itself a choice. Similarly, when you delay making a choice, you’re making a choice to delay the other choice. Even Hobson’s choice—often viewed as no choice—involves choice. The story—perhaps true, perhaps not—is that Thomas Hobson ran a horse rental stable and insisted that the renter take the next horse in line—seemingly providing no choice. But, of course, there was a choice—not among horses but between the next horse in line or no horse—a classic case of “take it or leave it”.  And, universals are important to identify simply because they are part of the description of a process or concept under study and thus add to our knowledge and understanding of the subject. That practical applications and skills can be derived from this study is an added bonus.

These two general approaches—the search for differences and the search for universals--complement each other. Each provides needed insight and helps pave the way for developing principles and skills for more effective communication or choice making.

     Universals are discovered inductively, from examining choice behavior. But since not all choices have been examined and there are many in the future that can’t be examined, perhaps it’s best to view “universals” as hypotheses to be examined. 

     Universals describe what is rather than what should be or could be. They are descriptions for understanding the nature of choice making rather than prescriptions for making better choices.

     With the help of the insights from a variety of choice and decision-making theorists (Iyengar, 2011; Schwartz, 2004; Heath & Heath, 2013), here then is an initial and very preliminary attempt to identify some of the universals of choice making.

Choices are future predictions, guesses, hypotheses. When you make a choice, it’s like placing a bet—you bet that the choice you’re making will prove to be a good one, the best one actually. Because choices are predictions, you can never be certain how they will turn out. The advantage of going through a rigorous analysis of the pros and cons of the available choices is that your predictions are more likely to come true and that’s essentially what you want when making a choice (Heath & Heath, 2013; Schwartz, 2004).

Choices involve the acceptance of negatives and the rejection of positives—as well as the acceptance of positives and the rejection of negatives. Let’s say you’re making a choice between Alpha and Beta.  If your evaluation is a fair one and if Alpha and Beta are truly competitive as indicated by your initial indecision, then they each have positive qualities and they each have negative qualities. If you select Alpha, you get its positive qualities but also its negative ones and of course, in your rejection of Beta, you are not getting its positive qualities.

Choices are unique. Each choice is different from every other choice; it is made in a specific context of time and place and that time and place are in a constant state of flux. So, even in “repeating” the choice at a later time, it’s different because the time and place have changed and of course the choice maker has changed—in great part from making the choice in the first place.

Choices are prone to bias. There are a variety of biases that get in the way of logical and effective choice making. Since there is probably no person who is not prone to bias of one kind or another, it seems fair to identify bias as a universal. A number of biases that can get in the way of effective choice making have been identified previously, and in some detail (DeVito, 2016a). So, in brief:

·       In the ambiguity bias, your choices are heavily influenced by the desire to reduce ambiguity.

·       In the bandwagon bias, you make your choice by following the herd, especially those you view as “attractive”.

·       In the anchoring bias, your choices are heavily influenced by what comes first.

·       In the confirmation bias, your choices are influenced by initial beliefs.

·       In the status quo bias, your choices are influenced against change.

Choices have constraints. Some choices are made with few constraints—there is almost total freedom to decide one way or the other. So, let’s say you’re wealthy and want to buy a car—your choices are limitless as to the car you buy—after all, you can afford any one of them, even that new Lamborghini. But you still need a car and so your choices have to be made among the available car choices. In other cases, your choices are much more limited and restricted. If you’re in the military, for example, you may choose to put on your left shoe before the right one but you may not choose the kind of shoes you put on.

Choices are reasonable. Or at least the choices you make seem reasonable at the time you make them. When you make a choice, you’re no doubt selecting the choice that you think at that time and in that situation is the best of the available choices. Things may change—and often do—and as a result your decision may prove to be extremely effective (you bought the right stock and are now extremely wealthy) or extremely ineffective (you bought the wrong stock and lost all your money). But, at the time you make the choice, you’re making the right choice.

Choices are purposeful. Choices have a purpose; they are debated and made to achieve some purpose, some aim.  Choice makers have an end result in mind. And, not surprisingly, purposes vary greatly in importance. Some choice purposes hardly seem like purposes; they are almost automatic and usually of little consequence and so we rarely notice them—the shirt you wear or the salad you order. Other choices are more important and involve more significant purposes—choosing a life time partner, selecting a job offer, determining when to retire, or relocating to another state or country. Some purposes are self-focused--what can I do to get that promotion--and others are other-focused—what can I do to help the homeless--and may be viewed as existing on a continuum—perhaps from selfish to altruistic.  So, although purposes vary widely, one or more purposes are always present.

Choices are difficult. All choices are difficult. But, there’s a continuum. Some choices involve very little difficulty and some involve a great deal. There are at least two reasons for choice difficulty. One source of difficulty is the similarity in the pros and cons of the available choices. When the choices are very similar, there is considerable difficulty; when the choices differ widely in their positive/negative qualities, the choice is less difficult. Another source of difficulty comes from the importance of the choice; unimportant choices are easier to make than important ones.

Choices involve risk. Choices, by their very nature, involve risk, specifically the risk of making a poor choice and, at the same time, the risk of not choosing the one you should have chosen (Ellsberg, 2001). The risk, then, is not only in making a bad choice, it’s also in not making a good choice. Some risks are so minor that they are not perceived as risks—for example, the restaurant you select for dinner is minor but still involves risk. Other choices are of course riskier—selecting a college or a major or a job or a house, for example.

Choices have consequences. Stephen Covey (2004, p. 70) once noted that “While we are free to choose our actions, we are not free to choose the consequences of our actions.” And because the consequences cannot be chosen or predicted with complete accuracy, the choice maker is taking a risk. Sometimes, the consequences are only for the choice maker—the entrĂ©e to select, for example. Sometimes, and probably most of the time, the consequences involve other parties as well—for example, the decision to divorce or start a business or have a child. Some consequences are severe—the type of medical treatment you seek—and others are relatively inconsequential—the sneakers you buy.  And yet, even this seemingly obvious example needs qualification and illustrates an important principle of choice making and that is that even choices that seem insignificant and having only minor consequences, may in some situations prove very significant. The choice of new sneakers that you take with you on a 4-week safari, for example, may prove extremely consequential.

Choices are culturally influenced. Culture influences all aspects of communication and influences choice making in a variety of ways. Geert Hofstede’s (Hofstede, Hofstede, & Minkov, 2010) typology of cultural differences posits, among other dimensions, that cultures differ in, for example, their primary orientations to individualism-collectivism, masculine-feminine, and restraint and indulgent. Those from an individualist culture are more likely to make choices that benefit the self, whereas those from collectivist cultures are more likely to make choices that benefit the group. Those from masculine cultures—those that emphasize assertiveness and power—will make choices that are consistent with this cultural orientation—in contrast to those from a feminine culture whose decisions would give primary attention to relationships. Those from restraint cultures will make choices that will be of primary value in the future—saving or going to college, for example, while those from indulgent cultures are more likely to make choices that will give pleasure and satisfaction in the present—buying that expensive suit or cutting classes to go to the beach, for example.

Choices are influenced by personality. Not surprisingly, the personality of the choice maker will influence the types of choices made. As already noted, choices involve risk but people vary in the degree to which they are willing to take risks. At the extremes are those who are risk takers and those who are risk aversive. Risk takers are likely to make choices that involve greater risk, going all-in in poker or betting one’s last dollar on a horse. Some are risk aversive and prefer to hold on to the chips and the money for fear of losing it. And, some choice makers are maximizers and others are satisficers (Simon, 1956). In making a choice, maximizers spend an enormous amount of time analyzing the pros and cons of each and every choice, determined to make exactly the right choice, to maximize their benefits. On the other hand, are satisficers—a term coined by Simon—who aim to make a choice that will be satisfying, that will suffice.

Choices are influenced by socio-economic status.  Like psychological influences, there are also socio-economic influences. At the most obvious level, the money that people have enables them to have a wider array of choices than those without such financial resources. So, in planning a vacation, wealthy people have many more choices--of location, accommodations, length of stay, and just about everything that goes into a vacation. Those of more limited means, are similarly more limited in their possible choices. Persons who are well educated will likely spend more time evaluating choices and will be less impulsive and perhaps less prone to bias than those with less education and knowledge.

Perhaps it’s more appropriate to say that the culture, personality, and sociology of the individual will conspire to influence choice making—the person from an individualistic culture who is a wealthy risk taker is going to make and evaluate choices very different from someone from a collectivist culture who is poor and risk aversive.

 

The universals identified here are surely not the only ones that could be identified—maybe even not the most important. And likely some will disagree that those noted here are in fact universals. But, as already noted, this is a preliminary attempt—a discussion starter—to identify some features that are common to all choice-making behavior and that hopefully will advance our understanding of this crucial process, a process that George Eliot called “the strongest principle of growth.”

 

REFERENCES

Covey, S. R. (2004). The 7 habits of highly effective people. NY: Free Press.

DeVito, J. A. (1996). Brainstorms: How to think more creatively about communication (or about anything else). NY: Longman.

DeVito, J. A. (2016a). Biases in making choices. Etc.: A Review of General Semantics 73, 314-320.

DeVito, J. A. (2016b). Making choices. Etc.: A Review of General Semantics 73, 173-179.

Ellsberg, D. (2001). Risk, ambiguity, and decision. NY: Taylor & Francis, 2001. 

Greenberg, J. H., ed. (1963). Universals of language. Cambridge, MA: M.I.T, Press.

Heath, C. & Heath, D. (2013). Decisive: How to make better choices in life and work. NY: Random House/Crown.

Hofstede, G., Hofstede, G., & Minkov, M. (2010). Cultures and organizations: Software of the mind (3rd ed.). NY: McGraw-Hill.

Iyengar, S. (2011). The art of choosing. NY: Hatchette/Twelve.

Schwartz, B. (2004). The paradox of choice: Why more is less. NY: Harper Perennial.

Simon, H. A. (1956). Rational choice and the structure of the environment. Psychological Review 63 (2), pp. 129-138.

 

*Joseph A. DeVito, Ph.D., is Professor Emeritus, Hunter College, City University of New York.

 


10.03.2018

Biases in Making Choices


Biases in Making Choices

This is a word copy of an article that was published in Etc: A Review of General Semantics 73, October 2016, pp. 314-320.  (The journal is a bit behind and this was actually published October 2018.) The purpose of the article was not to propose new theories but just to put some of these cognitive biases together and apply them to choice-making. And, as usual, the insights of General Semantics make a lot of confusing things a lot clearer.

Making choices is not an easy task. It regularly creates stress and regret. Everyone wants to make the right choices or at least what we imagine the right choice might be.
The process is complicated and made less effective than might be because of a variety of cognitive biases that impair logical thinking and analysis and lead to errors of judgment, misevaluations, and bad choices. The trick is to identify the biases and to confront them with more logical, more mindful, analysis.
Here we single out just five of the many biases (the ambiguity bias, the bandwagon bias, the anchoring bias, the confirmation bias, and the status quo bias), explaining how they operate, offering some examples, and proposing counter measures you can take to help reduce the influence of these biases.
The Ambiguity Bias
All choices involve some degree of ambiguity—there is always some unknown factor that can alter the effectiveness of the choice. The ambiguity bias leads you to select the choice that is least ambiguous, the choice that is most certain (Ellsberg, 1961, 2001; Chew, Ebstein, & Zhong, 2012).
For example, assume you’re buying a used car and you’re trying to decide between two very similar cars—one has 70,000 miles and the other has a broken mileage counter and so may have fewer or more miles than 70,000. All other things being equal, you’d be more likely to choose the one with known mileage even if it’s high.
Consider a student selecting a course taught by two professors; one has average ratings on Ratemyprofessor.com and the other is unrated.  It’s likely that the student would select the professor who has a rating, even though it’s just average.
Or consider selecting a restaurant from the reviews on Yelp. Of the nearby choices, one has a 3-star rating and the other is unrated. More than likely you’d chose the 3-star restaurant.
In all of these cases, you figure that the known average (or even below average) is better than the unknown which could be a lot worse. Of course, if the professor’s rating as horrible and the restaurant is given no stars, you’d likely go with the unknown. But, when things are at the acceptable level of tolerance, you’d likely choose the known.
It’s interesting to note in this connection that cultures differ widely in their tolerance of ambiguity (Hofstede, Hofstede, & Minkov, 2010).  Persons from Singapore, Jamaica, Denmark, Sweden, Hong Kong, and other high ambiguity tolerant cultures are more tolerant of uncertainty and ambiguity while persons from Greece, Portugal, Guatemala, Uruguay, Belgium, and other low ambiguity tolerant cultures are less so and experience greater discomfort when situations are ambiguous. Students from low ambiguity tolerant cultures, for example, will want assignments that are clear and specific and will feel uncomfortable with ambiguous assignments; students from high ambiguity tolerant cultures will respond in opposite ways.
            The antidote to the ambiguity bias is—when possible—to reduce the ambiguity so that all choices can be examined more objectively. When that’s not possible—as in the case of the broken mileage counter—you’d need to make inferences based on other factors—the wear of the tires, the condition of the seats, the dings, and so on—that might help you better estimate mileage. And the student might reduce uncertainty by sitting in on a class or two with each instructor before making a decision.
The Bandwagon Bias
The term bandwagon seems to have been used, originally, in reference to the wagon that carried the band in the circus. Later, politicians would use a wagon with a band to promote their candidate and urged voters to jump on the bandwagon in support their candidate.
            As a cognitive bias, the bandwagon bias refers to the very common tendency to go with the crowd, to believe what others believe and to do what others do (Nelson, 2016). Going along with the crowd reduces the stress on choice making. Even if you make the wrong choice, you have lots of company and that’s comforting. As business leader Lei Jun put it: “Things get much easier if one jumps on the bandwagon of existing trends.” But that’s obviously not always the most effective choice.
            And, it’s not just the majority that influence us; it’s also the attractiveness of the other people. This attractiveness bias leads you to follow and to be influenced by those you consider attractive. That is, you’re more likely to believe and act in the way attractive people do than the way unattractive people do. It’s one of the reasons that clothing models are all above average in attractiveness. It’s also one of the reasons that political polls are so important and so influential; you want to vote for and support a winner, not a loser and so polls may influence voters more than report voter preferences. In groups, this tendency is referred to a groupthink, the tendency to agree with the majority and to not voice opposition (Janis, 1983; Richmond, McCroskey, & McCroskey, 2005).
            The antidote here is to recognize that the majority—however attractive--can be wrong. “Even when the experts all agree,” noted Bertrand Russell, “they may well be mistaken.” A good example of this is seen in the bystander bias where a group of people, even while witnessing a crime, may do nothing (Darley & LatanĂ©, 1968), a bias articulated after observing that a crowd of people did nothing while a woman was being murdered. More important, perhaps, is to recognize that other people are not you. They have different needs, wants, motivations, objectives, talents, and so on. What is right for them—however, many or however attractive—is not necessarily right for you.
The Anchoring Bias
The anchoring bias, as you can guess from its name, leads you to focus on just one bit of information about the choices and to ignore or give less importance to other factors. It anchors your thinking to one aspect; usually, it’s the first impression (McElhany, 2016; Dean, 2013).
Often it takes the form of anchoring decisions to what you’re used to or what you expect based on past experiences. For example, let’s say you’re a college student and have worked at a variety of fast food restaurants for $13 an hour. Now, you’re offered a job at $14 an hour and so you take it. You take it because you’ve anchored your pay at $13 and the increase of a dollar is seen as a reason to take the new job.
The anchoring bias leads you to evaluate your choices according to some baseline. For example, in buying a house, the anchoring figure is the asking price and it is around this asking price that negotiations will take place. The same is true for a car; the sticker price is the baseline; it’s the anchor.
            The antidote here is to examine the negatives of your focus and the positives of the other aspects of the choice. Recognizing that the anchor is in fact an anchor and is getting in the way of your impartial examination of other choices is likely to help reduce the effect of this bias. And, of course, you can always try to reset the anchor: I’m looking for a BMW 5 for X-amount; what can you do for me?
The Confirmation Bias
Umberto Eco once wrote that “followers of the occult believe in only what they already know, and in those things that confirm what they have already learned.” In reality most people, though not occult followers, seek confirmation for their beliefs; they operate with the confirmation bias, a bias that leads you (sometimes consciously and sometimes unconsciously) to seek confirmation of your selected choice (Cherry, 2017). Whatever choice you want to be right will lead you to seek reasons why that is the right choice and why the other possible choices are not as good. It leads you, in fact, to seek out confirming evidence and to ignore evidence that is disconfirming.
            And so, if you decide you want to marry Chris, you’ll look for reasons why Chris would be an appropriate life partner. If your preconception is that German cars are the best, you’ll focus on evidence that supports this preconception—advertisements for Audi and Mercedes or talks with those who are pleased with their German cars. At the same time, you’d avoid ads for Lexus and Hyundai and dismiss or minimize any positive reactions from those who like cars that are not German.
The problem with the confirmation bias is that it leads you to limit your information search to confirming evidence and to avoid evidence that would disconfirm your preconceived choice. And, of course, it is exactly this disconfirming evidence that can lead to a more careful, thorough, and unbiased analysis.
            The antidote here is to analyze your choice by actively seeking disconfirming evidence. If you decide to buy a BMW, look for evidence against this choice—you already likely have evidence as to why you should buy it; you need to balance that evidence with other evidence, especially contradictory evidence. One simple way to do this is to read positive reviews of other choices and negative reviews of your selected choice. Listing—literally making a list—the negative aspects of your choice and the positive aspects of other choices, can help balance the evaluation. Taken too far, however, and you’ll never make a choice at all.
The Status Quo Bias
The status quo bias leads you to make decisions that essentially retain what you already have (Samuelson & Zeckhauser, 1988; Henderson, 2016). The status quo bias leads you to choose the familiar over the unfamiliar. The well-known adage—Better the devil you know, than the devil you don’t know—captures the status quo bias and also supports the ambiguity bias where you prefer the known to the unknown.
In many cases, you make a decision to not make a decision or not to change and simply stick with what you have. The emotional advantage here is that not making a choice doesn’t seem like making a choice and so it enables you (1) to avoid the stress of making a choice and (2) to avoid the regret that follows many choices.
Not surprisingly, you’re more likely to want to remain with the status quo when there is an overabundance of choices. When there are too many possible choices, the entire process can appear too confusing and too complex. And here the status quo feels a lot more comfortable than going through the process of examining all these potential choices and, perhaps, making a mistake in the process.
Examples of the status quo bias are all around us—retaining your current insurance without looking for less expensive policies or retaining your cell phone service or simply renewing without examining alternative plans. The status quo bias also seems a likely reason why so many unhappy couples stay together. It’s easier to remain with the status quo and endure the unhappiness.
The status quo bias is closely related to another natural tendency and that is the risk avoidance bias; you want to avoid risk. Because you’re probably like most people and risk aversive, staying with the status quo enables you to avoid losing something—a partner, money, a job, for example. Even though a change may well bring additional benefits, it may also lead you to incur a loss and losing (say, money) is more distressing and unpleasant than gaining money is enjoyable Ellsberg, 1961, 2001). The potential benefits of a decision to change are seen as less important, less consequential than the potential downsides or negative effects of a decision to change that may turn out to be a poor one.
Another closely related bias is the omission bias. The negative impact of a wrong choice is less if it was a choice to do nothing and more if it was a choice to do something, that is, to change the status quo (Schwartz, 2016). So, for example, the fear of a child becoming ill leads many parents to not have their children vaccinated for any of a variety of viruses. If the child does get sick, the negative impact would be greater if some action was taken than if no action was taken. One of the problems with this way of thinking is that the weight of the evidence is clearly on the side of doing something (that is, getting vaccinated) and against doing nothing (that is, not getting vaccinated). Yet, the omission bias persists (Ritov & Baron, 1990).
Recognizing that you may be influenced by this bias—bringing it to a mindful state—will help reduce its effects. Perhaps it will also help to recall Ronald Reagan’s observation that “status quo, you know, is Latin for ‘the mess we’re in’.” Or, equally appropriate, is leadership theorist Warren Bennis’ claim that “the manager accepts the status quo, the leader challenges it.” Visualizing what things would be like if changes were made may also prove of value.

All of these cognitive biases are based on faulty assumptions. So:
·         To combat the ambiguity bias: Don’t assume you know or can know everything. Everything is to some degree ambiguous and the goal should be to reduce uncertainty as much as possible.
·         To combat the bandwagon bias (and its related attractiveness bias and bystander bias): Don’t assume that the majority is always right.
·         To combat the anchoring bias: Don’t assume that what comes first is necessarily the most important.
·         To combat the confirmation bias: Don’t assume that your beliefs aren’t getting in the way of logical analysis.
·         To combat the status quo bias (and its related risk avoidance bias and omission bias): Don’t assume that doing nothing is necessarily the best choice or that taking risks is necessarily a bad choice.
References
Cherry, K. (2017). What is a confirmation bias? Retrieved February 3, 2018 from https://www.verywell.com/what-is-a-confirmation-bias-2795024

Chew, S. H., Epstein, R. P., & Zhong, S. (2012). Ambiguity aversion and familiarity bias: Evidence from behavioral and gene association studies. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 44, 1-18.


Dean, J. (2013). Anchoring effect: How the mind is biased by first impressions. Psyblog. Retrieved February 3, 2018 from http://www.spring.org.uk/2013/05/the-anchoring-effect-how-the-mind-is-biased-by-first-impressions.php.

Ellsberg, D.  (1961). Risk, ambiguity, and the savage axioms. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 75 (4): 643–669doi:10.2307/1884324

Ellsberg, D. (2001). Risk, ambiguity, and decision. New York: Taylor & Francis, 2001. 

Henderson, R. (2016). How powerful is status quo bias? Psychology Today. Retrieved February 3, 2018 from https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/after-service/201609/how-powerful-is-status-quo-bias

Hofstede, G., Hofstede, G., & Minkov, M. (2010). Cultures and organizations: Software of the mind (3rd ed.). NY: McGraw-Hill.

Janis, I. (1983). Victims of group thinking: A psychological study of foreign policy decisions and fiascoes (2nd ed.). Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin.

McElhany, R. (2016). The effects of anchoring bias on human behavior. Retrieved February 3, 2018 from https://www.sagu.edu/thoughthub/the-affects-of-anchoring-bias-on-human-behavior.

Nelson, K. (2016), Bandwagon effect—cognitive biases (Pt. 8). Retrieved February 3, 2018 from https://evolveconsciousness.org/bandwagon-effect-cognitive-biases-pt-8/.

Richmond, V. P., McCroskey, J. C., & McCroskey, L. L. (2005). Organizational communication for survival: Making work, work. Boston, MA: Allyn & Bacon.

Ritov, I., & Baron, J. (1990). Reluctance to vaccinate: Omission bias and ambiguityJournal of Behavioral Decision Making. 3 (4): 263–277. doi:10.1002/bdm.3960030404

Schwartz, B. (2016). The paradox of choice: Why more is less. Revised edition. New York: HarperCollins.

Samuelson, W., & Zeckhauser, R. (1988). Status quo bias in decision making. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1, 7-59.


*Joseph A. DeVito is Professor Emeritus, Hunter College of the City University of New York.